Finding the case he's making more persuasive with this. Still not convinced that the US planned to terminate Qatari LNG or abandon gulf allies after over a century of investment and political backing, and the idea that they planned to have Iran attack the facilities stretches credulity to breaking point. Also he'll need more evidence than a few Chevron contracts in the Med in a vague line to suggest they plan to build pipeline to rival Nordstream there. And the fact Russian oil has been unsanctioned and they too are making money hand over fist still doesn't get a mention. But evaluating a US strategy going back to Cheney et al is better than other analyses of Trump losing his mind, or conversely playing 5D chess as some kind of grand geopolitical strategic master. Corporate power knows how to pull strings and get what it wants, and if the oil company profits are through the roof (for now at least) that shows why there haven't been moves to get rid of the orange man, indicating that they're actually pleased with how things have gone.

Over all, resorting to violence and outright piracy (Trump even used the term himself in a recent speech) is still a sign of weakness IMO, and there are plenty of ways the grand plan Medhurst outlines could get frustrated or go disastrously wrong. Can that happen without WW3? Simplicius has downplayed the effectiveness of US/Western navies' ability to meaningfully slow down the movement of oil tankers, even outside of Hormuz, and Russia & China don't seem to be treating this as an existential threat. But maybe things are different behind closed doors and the piracy is more effective than he gives it credit for? We'll see...

Whatever happens it does seem to be an incredibly dangerous time, with the main worry in my mind being what will the US do if/when it is defeated and starts to pay a heavy price like it's inflicting on everyone else?

cheers,
I