Finding the case he's making more persuasive with this. Still not convinced that the US planned to terminate Qatari LNG or abandon gulf allies after over a century of investment and political backing, and the idea that they planned to have Iran attack the facilities stretches credulity to breaking point. Also he'll need more evidence than a few Chevron contracts in the Med in a vague line to suggest they plan to build pipeline to rival Nordstream there. And the fact Russian oil has been unsanctioned and they too are making money hand over fist still doesn't get a mention. But evaluating a US strategy going back to Cheney et al is better than other analyses of Trump losing his mind, or conversely playing 5D chess as some kind of grand geopolitical strategic master. Corporate power knows how to pull strings and get what it wants, and if the oil company profits are through the roof (for now at least) that shows why there haven't been moves to get rid of the orange man, indicating that they're actually pleased with how things have gone.
Over all, resorting to violence and outright piracy (Trump even used the term himself in a recent speech) is still a sign of weakness IMO, and there are plenty of ways the grand plan Medhurst outlines could get frustrated or go disastrously wrong. Can that happen without WW3? Simplicius has downplayed the effectiveness of US/Western navies' ability to meaningfully slow down the movement of oil tankers, even outside of Hormuz, and Russia & China don't seem to be treating this as an existential threat. But maybe things are different behind closed doors and the piracy is more effective than he gives it credit for? We'll see...
Whatever happens it does seem to be an incredibly dangerous time, with the main worry in my mind being what will the US do if/when it is defeated and starts to pay a heavy price like it's inflicting on everyone else?
nmClio the cat, ?July 1997-1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ??2010-3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ???-4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ?2006-4 December 2025 Toni the cat ?2005-25 March 2026
Gawd, what a shallow response .. and who gives a sh!t? .. (eyes roll)
Mind, I have to admit my son just did that and I filed it as unimportant. It's what you call wisdom young K.
Very astute analysis Ian. Personally I thought his (Medhurst) analysis is as good as it gets re oil and gas and energy primacy by the septics (thank you K). I think it would take a while to debate turns and twists of argument/s. You made a good stab for the start of that conversation .
nmClio the cat, ?July 1997-1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ??2010-3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ???-4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ?2006-4 December 2025 Toni the cat ?2005-25 March 2026
Eejit
Posted by t on May 3, 2026, 9:15 pm, in reply to "Bimbo....nm"
The five-second epistemology of the @richimedhurst piece people sent the kitchen this week is Yazid’s press release with a frowny face drawn on.
The frown is not the analysis.
The Druzhba pipeline started construction in 1960. First oil reached Czechoslovakia in 1962. Hungary 1963. Poland 1963. East Germany 1963. Full operation 1964. The pipeline kept pumping through the Prague Spring. Through the Afghan invasion. Through Reagan’s sanctions. Through the Berlin Wall coming down. Through the Soviet funeral in December 1991. Through every successor regime in every transit country. Sixty-six years later the pipeline still pumps oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline ran from 1984 to 2024. Forty years. Thirty-three of them after the Soviet Union was in the ground. The Yamburg trunk system kept getting new sections laid through 1992 — the year after the funeral, sections being added on the schedule the dead state had set. The Oil and Gas Journal recorded it. New sections every year until 1992.
The corpse laid pipe through Ukraine while the West wrote forensic investigations of how the Soviets had won.
This is the test of every piece called forensic. Does the piece know Yazid is in the ground.
The Medhurst piece does not know. The Medhurst piece reads four Chevron contracts and a USGS map and concludes Yazid pulled off the heist of the century. The heist is the Levantine Basin. The Levantine Basin contains, by USGS estimate, 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas. The USGS calls this less than two percent of the world’s proven gas reserves. Less than two percent. Iran’s share of one field — South Pars — holds roughly four times the recoverable gas of the entire Levantine Basin. Russia produces six hundred billion cubic meters a year, every year, in perpetuity. Russia produces the entire Medhurst heist, in volume, every six years. The world’s largest gas field is a sticker on the smallest basin in the war.
Yazid is the protagonist of the piece. Yazid pulled off the heist. Yazid built the Mediterranean Artery. Yazid took the basin. Yazid blocked the strait. Yazid is the subject of every sentence. The piece has a thousand words. Yazid is in nine hundred of them. The host country never enters the sentence. The host country is a place Yazid does things. INSTC is not in the piece. Power of Siberia 2 is not in the piece. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is not in the piece. The MOFCOM blocking statute is not in the piece. The Al Romanov OPEC exit on Day 60 is not in the piece. Russia is in the piece as a victim. China is in the piece as a victim. The petrodollar is in the piece as a winner. The petrodollar is in the ground.
I saw that (via https://nitter.net/imetatronink/ ) , but couldn't understand wtf he was on about - who or what is Yazid? That account's posts read like AI to me. The point about Levantine gas being low productivity compared to others damages Medhurst's thesis on that point if true.
"The point about Levantine gas being low productivity compared to others damages Medhurst's thesis on that point if true."
Yea, that was the salient point. I'm still trying to work out if the writing is AI or some attempt at an Anti-AI style. Too elliptical and a bit self indulgent for my liking.
'Containing some 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, the basin comprises “shared common resources, whose exploitation by any one party diminishes the share of neighbouring parties,” stated the UN report. The net value of these resources amounts to $524 billion, which should be distributed appropriately among the different parties, including Israel and Palestine: “These fields could be unitised, and their development could be undertaken on behalf of all parties, whose property rights should be ascertained prior to exploitation… Palestinians have a major stake not only in the fields under their land but in all of the common reserves.”
The report found that Palestinians have already lost roughly $2.57 billion due to Israel’s “prevention of the exercise of their right to benefit from the exploitation of their natural resources, guaranteed under international law. The longer Israel prevents Palestinians from exploiting their oil and natural gas reserves, the larger the opportunity costs of these reserves and the larger the costs of the occupation borne by Palestinians become.” 'Tell your story; Ask a question; Interpret generously http://storybythethroat.wordpress.com/tell-ask-listen/
on May 3, 2026, 4:06 pm
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