Operation Barbarossa and Germany's Defeat in the East by David Stahel (2009) is good on the defeat of Barbarossa at Smolensk.
Kiev 1941 by David Stahel (2013) is good on the strategic dilemma facing the Germans in September.
The Battle for Moscow by David Stahel (2017) is good on the consequences of the failure of Barbarossa.
The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy by Adam Tooze (2007) is excellent on German grand strategy after the British refused to fold in 1940, the long-odds all-or-nothing gamble of Barbarossa represented and that the rest of the war was the aftermath of the German defeat in September 1941.