The Lifeboat News: Another reading on the downing of a civilian airliner in Teheran

We now consider another explanation. There exists ELINT technology called SUTER which, among other things, can hijack air defense displays to show a falsified image different to the reality.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suter_(co…
Suter can:

- Show normal air traffic screens to hide bombers

- Show screens with fabricated hostile aircraft, even when none exist

- Intercept communications

- Shroud enemy in a debilitating fog of war

In short, just the kind of thing that would lead to a mistaken airliner downing... https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1216862815430021121.html

To me, this seems by far the most likely way the US could have silently interfered in a way that directly caused the 'human error' of firing at the civilian aircraft: by simply hacking into the displays of the air defense unit in question, and showing it what they want it to see.

This makes even more sense considering the Tor M1's that were stationed in Tehran, according to Moon of Alabama, had only a rudimentary radar and was not linked up to the rest of the AD system, as they'd been brought in for an extra layer of defense during the attack.

(The Tor M1 has been identified as the air defense unit responsible for downing the flight - you can read more in the Moon of Alabama article, which can be found here, and which I will discuss in a bit more detail later):

moonofalabama.org/2020/01/was-th…

(I've also been pointed to a WikiLeaks doc. indicating that Iran's Tor M1's are actually compromised, making this conclusion even more painfully likely. I won't go into further detail right now - let's just say the Tor M1 being responsible makes everything even more suspect.)

This explanation would also perfectly fit the IRGC statement: the flight did not change course, it did not need to - it was enough to trick the AD readings of the Tor M1 in question into showing a hostile target there where there were none.

It would also make sense for the IRGC to take full responsibility for the error, & to accept it as a mistake of their own, for indeed it was human error that caused the firing - even if that error was based on falsified readings presented by a hacked system.

So too does it make sense for them not to openly discuss what had encouraged this human error - the hack being difficult to give evidence for, while also revealing a lost 'battle' in the cyber-war with the US (even while the attack on Ain al-Assad was an cyber success for Iran).

3. US direct hacking of Iranian air defenses

A third possibility we must entertain, even if I find it less convincing than the above, is a direct hack by the US to make the Tor unit fire at the Ukrainian jet, skipping the step of tricking the soldier manning the battery.

This merely cuts out the middle man, and seems less likely because the Iranian side would be immediately warned of foul play had their anti-air batteries gone off unannounced, and would be far less likely to adopt it as a human error of their own.

One could argue that Iran prefer to take the blame than to admit the hack, but I find it difficult to believe they would accept the backlash had it not been truly a soldier of theirs who had pressed the button. For this reason, I continue to find display hack far more convincing.
So, then, we have seen some of the possibilities, which serve only as examples of the ways in which the US could have interfered, & without contradicting the IRGC's narrative: in scenario 1 & scenario 2, human error is still partly responsible - but, not fully.

There are no doubt plenty of other ways in which the US could have used electronic warfare to instigate the tragic mistake that the Iranian air defenses made - some of which may be knowable, others secret and classified. I have only given some examples, by way of demonstration.

Did the US do it?

It cannot be said outright that they did (or didn't)- it can only be demonstrated that they had the means, motivation and precedent to do so - and this is what I believe I have done.
Based on:

1. an Israeli attempt to burden Syria with the same tragedy barely a year ago

2. US-led protests in Iran that immediately capitalized on the downing of the jet

3. the feasible ways the US could have intervened

- US involvement cannot be discounted.

This is in addition to other suspicious or eyebrow-raising elements, like the fact that Bellingcat received a video of the airliner on fire, in the critical seconds..../ continues at link