Assads 3 big Allies. That kept him in power the past 10 years. Are Iran, Hezbollah & Moscow.
A group identified as a terrorist organization?
Seriously?
Its a coalition force that fought a revolution against al assad. Not the least of which is the "syrian freedom force". A well armed brigade sized unit comprised of defectors from Assads own military that refused to shoot, bombe, drop chemical wrapons on their own unarmed civilian population. For a reference point. The Kurds are identified, by turkey, as a terrorist organization. The kurds remain one of the united states most loyal mid east allies. And of course. Turkey is a huge us ally. As is Saudi Arabia. A known terrorist supporting regime.
The middle east is a very complicated region. Baathiats vs Persians. Shia vs Suni. Arab vs Jew vs Koptic vs Hindu. Its near impossible to use a broad sense overview of the region. As the politics change from region to region.
The west did this. Their mistake across Africa, south asia & the middle east. When after world war 2, the victors divided up the spiuls. Drew boundary lines across nomadic regions that had been ruled by war lords for a millenia. With the mistaken belief western values would eventually tame & civilize the "savages".
The west still doesnt understand the error.
As a result, war rages on. The artificial boundaries the western powers drew on a map do nothing to apease waring tribes that believe this land this specific date tree grove, or this wayer hole in the sinai dessert is my ancestors birth rite. By my fathers, fathers blood. It belongs to my son. A banker in Cairo might have the deed filed in a courthouse. It matters not to the man whose family has roamed their holdings for centuries.
That man. That claims the fig grove to be his. He is recognized as a terrorist by the banker in Cairo. Ask the fig grower. He'll certainly tell you it is the banker that has reigned terror on his people.
Funniest political ideology i ever heard was the bush jr. administration discussing how freedom & democracy would sweep the region in the post Saddam Hussein era. Lol. Hows that worked out?
Egypt saw the 1st wave of "arab spring" in 2011 when western ally Hasni Mubarak was deposed and exiled. The power vacuum that created saw the muslim brotherhood win power via election. The precursor to Hamas is the Muslim brotherhood.
Shortly after the brotherhoods election. A militaria Junta led by General El Sisi deposed the muslim brotherhood. Egypt is now ruled by a military dictatorship that is at minimum. No less harsh or corrupt than Mubarak's regime.
And lets face it. Egypt is one of the more stable "countries" in the middle east/north africa.
The stability lies in it being largely sunni. Bordered by largely sunni Saudi Arabia to the east, Sunni sudan to the south and sunni libya to its west. These 4 countries are all around 97% Sunni. Most of africa identifies as Sunni muslim. Especially north africa.. The sunni have struck peace agreements with israel, or at least gave shown willingness to try.
Syria has long been a sunni majority as well. But a lesser majority. More if a melting pot with kurds, turks shia & alwyates. A shia sect.
The assad family are Alwyate. And to remain in minority control of the sunni majority. Bashar AlAssad turned to moscow for weapons and Iran for money. Creating an inholy alliance of oppression. That Miscow wanted to maintain at all costs as it was their lone foothold in the region.
You can see why Assads regime did finally crumble.
Partly bc Moscow got bogged down in Ukraine at the same time Hamas, Hezbolah & Houthis bled Irans bank dry. Left to fend for himself. Assad who was propped up by iran/ moscow since 2015/16. Finally ran out of funding and credibility to jeep his troops loyal.
So, now. That is the question. The power vacuum. You can bet Hamas/ Islamic brotherhood/ Isis. 3 seperate organizations with intermingled po.wer structure & funding- will try. As they did in egypt. To sieze power. The west should stay the fk out of chosing the next leader. But should then support with full effort whomever the people do chose. Dont fret if its not a western thinker. We should only hope its a sunni that pledges a multi ethnic government in support of the various tribes having equality.
Is Abu Al-Golani such a man? Idk. Probably not. 1st.I dont think he is Sunni. The us should try their best to help him in the moment. If only to help stabalize the country and prevent worse actors from seizing power. At the same time using care to not paint whomever rises out of the scrum from being painted as a puppet of the west, the likes of Allawi in Iraq. Also offer protection from both Iraq & Moscow if thats their desire. Offer is different than insist. And staying out of the way is different than abandoning.
Millions have died in this Syrian revolution.
The result is a very young population that more than anything. Would like to believe the cost is somehow worthy of the outcome.
If my friend in Egypt is any example of what they want. Its to just live, work. Be calm, prayerful & joyous without fear of the government coming for them in the night. They are no different than our fore fathers. God, family, honesty & hard work are the forefront of their value system.
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