https://nitter.net/S_Mahendrarajah/status/2014263942546178248#m
22 Jan 2026 · 9:08 AM UTC

Respected analysts on X don't believe US has sufficient assets for attacks,
which is probably correct if sustained war is objective. But, if like Israel in
June, US seeks to eliminate top leadership & hope for regime collapse, they
might still try. IDF will join; NATO will assist

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| (Quoted tweet)
Shivan Mahendrarajah @S_Mahendrarajah

Trump and Iran: Decapitation Strikes?
Trump said "all options are the table" and ordered the Pentagon to prepare
"decisive" strikes on Iran. He said "Iran needs new leadership," and "Khamenei
is a sick, murderous man who needs to go." Given MO of US/ISR, this suggests
targeting of Aya K. Trump's assumption is probably that the "regime" will
collapse without its "dictator."

Trump is Petty
He disliked Nicholas Maduro's dancing and comments, which he considered
"disrespectful." Trump said, "Iran has been misbehaving very badly. I don't
think he [Aya K] respects me."

"Khamenei's frequent taunting of Trump in speeches," a former U.S. Amb to Israel
said, "will push him [Trump] over the edge." For e.g., Aya K tweeted, "we find
the US president guilty due to the casualties, damages and slander he inflicted
upon the Iranian nation."

U.S. Military Assets
Analysts noted that U.S. lacks sufficient assets in West Asia for war. A carrier
strike group will enter the Arabian Sea in days; air assets are relocating to
Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait. However, will they be sufficient for attack, and for
the defense of Israel? Perhaps if DOD believes that decapitation strikes will
collapse the government and not lead to full scale retaliation.

"Shock and Awe"
The "assassination scenario" is reasonable. Israel has used it for
decades. During the Twelve-Day War, Tel Aviv targeted Aya K but failed to fix
his location. Israel had hoped for "Shock and Awe" by killing generals,
political leaders (Pezeshkian, Speaker Qalibaf, et al.), and Aya K.

In the twenty-year "War on Terror," killings by drones, USAF, and SOF became
established practices. Obama authorized 563 drone strikes in eight years
(cf. Bush, 57, in <8 yrs). Assassinations of hundreds of AQ and Iraqi leaders,
and AFG & PAK Taliban, did nothing to prevent America's defeat in two theaters.

Trump believes targeting Haji Qassem crippled Iran's military. This is
delusional, but the world has by now learned that Trump is detached from
reality.