Electronic Warfare Begins in Shiraz: Iran's Radars Suddenly "Blinded" as the Jordan Air Bridge Persists... Has the "Silent Preparation" Phase Begun?
Analysis of the Latest Update (Thursday Morning, January 22 - 06:29 GMT): It appears that "electronic blindness" has officially reached the heart of Iran. The new NOTAM (A0285/26) serves as the "golden evidence" marking the onset of preliminary electronic warfare.
Here are the critical details:
1. Shiraz Loses Its Sight: Radar Failure (MSSR) * The New NOTAM: (A0285/26) * Content: The Monopulse Secondary Surveillance Radar (MSSR) in Shiraz is "Not Available," and radar services in Sectors 3 and 4 of the Area Control Center (ACC) may be cut off until this evening (January 22). * Military Significance: - Shiraz: This is the gateway to Southern and Central Iran. The loss of radar there creates a "black hole" in civilian air coverage (and potentially military coverage if the jamming is wide-spectrum). - Timing: The sudden failure of radars coinciding with the US fleet going into "Dark Mode" is a classic signature of a cyberattack or Electronic Warfare (EW).
2. The AWACS Enigma: A "Weakness" or a "Feint"? The report noting the absence of Early Warning aircraft (E-3G AWACS) in the region can be interpreted in two ways: * Hypothesis 1 (Deception): The US is avoiding the aging E-3G because it is "exposed" to Iranian and Chinese radars. Instead, it is relying on an integrated network of: - F-35s: Acting as "mini-AWACS" to exchange data. - E-2D Advanced Hawkeye: Early warning aircraft launching from the aircraft carrier Lincoln (which are present but do not appear in land-base reports). - Ground Radars: The radar network in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel provides sufficient coverage without the need for AWACS circling overhead and revealing intentions. * Hypothesis 2: The absence of AWACS implies the strike will be missile and ballistic-based (launched from destroyers and long-range bombers) rather than a traditional aerial battle requiring air-to-air combat management (Dogfight).
3. The "Muwaffaq Salti" Bridge: The Center of Gravity The continued landing of C-17 aircraft (Flights RCH876, 869, 842...) at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (Jordan) confirms it will be the primary platform for defense and offense. * Jordan has effectively become a "land-based aircraft carrier," protecting Israel from the East and attacking Iran from the West.
4. Trump's Statement: "They Will Not Have Nukes" Trump speaking in the past tense ("We hit hard") and future tense ("It will happen again") removes any diplomatic ambiguity. * He is clearly stating: The goal is not "behavior change" of the regime, but "disarmament." * The phrase "We will find where they are now" implies the target bank has been updated to include new secret nuclear sites or those that have been relocated.
Field Summary (Thursday Morning, January 22): "Blindness" has begun: * In Iran: Shiraz radars are out of service (deliberate action?). * At Sea: The US fleet is in "Dark Mode." * In Israel: GPS jamming in the North.
We are in the "lights out" phase before the show. The failure of the Shiraz radar is the first "electronic shot" of the battle.
Unless the US is has some sort of "supertech" weapon they plan to unveil against Iran, I have yet to see a military buildup in the region that would permit anything remotely approximating a "decisive" strike against the Iranian military and its government.
A squadron of F-15s, a few tankers, and a couple dozen C-17 shipments of ordnance and/or AD systems has been sent to Jordan. That's a modest defensive shield against drones and cruise missiles, at best. It's certainly not a potent strike package.
Three destroyers and, possibly, an Ohio-class missile submarine are already in the region.
CSG-3 is en route, with CVN-72 and 3 DDGs. In total, the Navy could probably launch ~350 Tomahawks. But against a huge country like Iran, even if all 350 hit "something", it's not going to come close to disarming the Iranians.
The US Navy is absolutely NOT going to venture into the Persian Gulf, or even the Gulf of Oman. And it would be extremely high risk to fly refueling tankers in Iranian airspace. So that is going to limit carrier strike aircraft to their fully loaded combat radius of ~600 miles - not nearly far enough to hit targets deep in Iran.
And even if they flew a half-dozen B-2s, and a dozen B-52s / B-1Bs ... well, it just doesn't add up to much in the context of a one-off strike package. It's just a few dozen more stand-off cruise missiles thrown into the mix.
In short, I still cannot see that the US is assembling anything that could be characterized as a potent strike package. So I can't imagine what they think they're going to do.
To inflict anything like a "decisive defeat" against Iran, the US would need to sustain a MAJOR air campaign for several WEEKS, or even MONTHS. And they simply do not have the material and logistical wherewithal to do that.
Most importantly, I do not believe they can sustain an air campaign of even a few days without suffering the loss of several aircraft, and very likely a few ships. And I do not believe Trump is prepared to face ANY significant losses.
Oh, and lest I forget, we have already had it proven beyond dispute that the US/Israeli missile defense is woefully deficient against Iranian ballistic missiles.
Every US base in the region will get pounded. And Israel will get pounded. It's even quite possible that Diego Garcia will get pounded.
Then we'll have a major geopolitical crisis on our hands.
So let's hope and pray Trump chickens out again.
"The narcissist has no rigidity, is hyper-flexible." nm
It might be the last roll of the dice for a genocidal settler colonial death rape cult with Netyanhu at the head, trying to stave off his judicial problems, possessing Epstein kompromat.
Shivan Mahendrarah: Insufficient US Assets for Sustained War
Respected analysts on X don't believe US has sufficient assets for attacks, which is probably correct if sustained war is objective. But, if like Israel in June, US seeks to eliminate top leadership & hope for regime collapse, they might still try. IDF will join; NATO will assist
Trump and Iran: Decapitation Strikes? Trump said "all options are the table" and ordered the Pentagon to prepare "decisive" strikes on Iran. He said "Iran needs new leadership," and "Khamenei is a sick, murderous man who needs to go." Given MO of US/ISR, this suggests targeting of Aya K. Trump's assumption is probably that the "regime" will collapse without its "dictator."
Trump is Petty He disliked Nicholas Maduro's dancing and comments, which he considered "disrespectful." Trump said, "Iran has been misbehaving very badly. I don't think he [Aya K] respects me."
"Khamenei's frequent taunting of Trump in speeches," a former U.S. Amb to Israel said, "will push him [Trump] over the edge." For e.g., Aya K tweeted, "we find the US president guilty due to the casualties, damages and slander he inflicted upon the Iranian nation."
U.S. Military Assets Analysts noted that U.S. lacks sufficient assets in West Asia for war. A carrier strike group will enter the Arabian Sea in days; air assets are relocating to Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait. However, will they be sufficient for attack, and for the defense of Israel? Perhaps if DOD believes that decapitation strikes will collapse the government and not lead to full scale retaliation.
"Shock and Awe" The "assassination scenario" is reasonable. Israel has used it for decades. During the Twelve-Day War, Tel Aviv targeted Aya K but failed to fix his location. Israel had hoped for "Shock and Awe" by killing generals, political leaders (Pezeshkian, Speaker Qalibaf, et al.), and Aya K.
In the twenty-year "War on Terror," killings by drones, USAF, and SOF became established practices. Obama authorized 563 drone strikes in eight years (cf. Bush, 57, in <8 yrs). Assassinations of hundreds of AQ and Iraqi leaders, and AFG & PAK Taliban, did nothing to prevent America's defeat in two theaters.
Trump believes targeting Haji Qassem crippled Iran's military. This is delusional, but the world has by now learned that Trump is detached from reality.
Today's sunrise (Thursday, January 22) reveals a scene growing increasingly dark and precise. It provides the "cornerstone" that solves the "Shiraz" puzzle. Based on the latest NOTAM file (which I analyzed this morning) and new intelligence data, here is the strategic reading of the situation:
1. The Shiraz Puzzle Solved: "Blinding the Factory" Before the Strike Current intelligence confirms that Shiraz is the "capital of military electronic industries" (manufacturing radars and air defense missiles). This makes NOTAM number (A0285/26) the most dangerous notice issued to date. * The Event: Failure of the Surveillance Radar (MSSR) in Shiraz. * The Interpretation: This is not a random technical malfunction. It is a "preparatory cyber attack." - You do not blind the radars of an ordinary city; you blind the radars of the city that manufactures radars. - The objective is to prevent the air defense systems being assembled there from detecting the incoming attack aimed at destroying the factories themselves. It is an "electronic execution" preceding the "missile execution."
2. The "Maintenance Gap" Theory: Iran Admits Blindness Information suggests that "clearing the skies (via NOTAM) is a tactical compensation for the shortage of radars," which explains the unusual NOTAM behavior over the past few days. * The Iranian Strategy: Since their aging radars (or those damaged by sanctions) cannot accurately distinguish between a civilian airliner and a stealth F-35 amidst electronic jamming, the only solution is to "zero out the airspace." Anything that flies is an enemy and must be shot down. * The Result: Iran has effectively turned itself into a self-imposed "No-Fly Zone," simplifying the task for air defenders who no longer have to worry about civilian casualties.
3. Flight "GOLD" (GOLD11-22): The Second Wave The arrival of 4 tankers (KC-135) towing 12 F-15 fighters (a full squadron) under the callsign GOLD confirms that we have transitioned from "deterrence" to "sweeping attack." * The Calculation: We have 35 F-15E fighters (previously arrived in Jordan) + 12 F-15 fighters (arriving now) = 47 air superiority and deep-strike fighters. * The Mission: The F-15s are the "bomb trucks" that will enter after the B-2 bombers and F-35 fighters open gaps in the air defenses, tasked with wiping out factories and nuclear facilities.
4. Two Aircraft Carriers = War Doctrine The movement of the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush from Norfolk to join the USS Abraham Lincoln (currently "vanished" or running silent) is a literal application of the Pentagon's doctrine for Total War: * One Carrier: Used for deterrence and limited operations. * Two Carriers: Used for a Major Theater War. One is dedicated to the defense of allies, while the second is dedicated to Sustained Strikes.
5. Trump's Threat: "The Whole Country Will Be Blown to Smithereens" This statement raises the stakes to the absolute maximum: Regime Survival. * Trump sets the equation: Either abandon the nuclear program and missile factories, or the regime - and the state - will cease to exist.
Field Summary (Noon, Thursday, January 22): All roads lead to Shiraz: * Electronically: Its radars have been blinded (NOTAM). * Intelligence: It has been identified as the center of gravity for military industry. * Militarily: The new F-15 squadron (GOLD) is inbound to execute the mission.
Re: TN: Iran's Radars in a "Coma," Two Carriers at Sea... "Military Execution" for Iranian Industry
I wonder what the Russians and Chinese have up their sleeves...?The last working-class hero in England. Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ??? - 4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ???-4 December 2025
Re: TN: Iran's Radars in a "Coma," Two Carriers at Sea... "Military Execution" for Iranian Industry
I appreciate your posting this for the rumour but it reads like it's written by AI and one with a deeply pro Israeli Yanqui algorithm.
Glaringly: "...16 Chinese military cargo aircraft landed in Iran within a compressed 56-hour period has injected a new and deeply destabilising variable into an already combustible Iran-Israel confrontation..."
The language here is just so corrupt. "Stabilising" i.e. stability is to do with balance...There's no way that the present situation: with a belligerent Israel and the USA with the Brits and other European satrapies also clearly wanting a bit of the "action" against a lone Iran already crippled by sanctions could ever be described as "stable" to be "destabilised" in the first place.
-Chinese military aid to Iran actually would bring more "stability" to this equation: if only a little, not less.
Somebody set the machines dishonesty & perfidy levels to 11...
Re: TN: Iran's Radars in a "Coma," Two Carriers at Sea... "Military Execution" for Iranian Industry
How do you compress 56 hours? Is it the cuts, hours are now 59 minutes each??The last working-class hero in England. Clio the cat, ? July 1997 - 1 May 2016 Kira the cat, ? ? 2010 - 3 August 2018 Jasper the Ruffian cat ??? - 4 November 2021 Georgina the cat ???-4 December 2025
MenchOsint: Reports that the aircraft carrier USS Bush is on its way are also false. No mention of
on January 22, 2026, 8:18 am