https://nitter.net/imetatronink/status/2014174299310223671
22 Jan 2026 · 3:12 AM UTC

And I'll bet he does again.

Unless the US is has some sort of "supertech" weapon they plan to unveil against
Iran, I have yet to see a military buildup in the region that would permit
anything remotely approximating a "decisive" strike against the Iranian military
and its government.

A squadron of F-15s, a few tankers, and a couple dozen C-17 shipments of
ordnance and/or AD systems has been sent to Jordan. That's a modest defensive
shield against drones and cruise missiles, at best. It's certainly not a potent
strike package.

Three destroyers and, possibly, an Ohio-class missile submarine are already in
the region.

CSG-3 is en route, with CVN-72 and 3 DDGs. In total, the Navy could probably
launch ~350 Tomahawks. But against a huge country like Iran, even if all 350 hit
"something", it's not going to come close to disarming the Iranians.

The US Navy is absolutely NOT going to venture into the Persian Gulf, or even
the Gulf of Oman. And it would be extremely high risk to fly refueling tankers
in Iranian airspace. So that is going to limit carrier strike aircraft to their
fully loaded combat radius of ~600 miles - not nearly far enough to hit targets
deep in Iran.

And even if they flew a half-dozen B-2s, and a dozen B-52s / B-1Bs ... well, it
just doesn't add up to much in the context of a one-off strike package. It's
just a few dozen more stand-off cruise missiles thrown into the mix.

In short, I still cannot see that the US is assembling anything that could be
characterized as a potent strike package. So I can't imagine what they think
they're going to do.

To inflict anything like a "decisive defeat" against Iran, the US would need to
sustain a MAJOR air campaign for several WEEKS, or even MONTHS. And they simply
do not have the material and logistical wherewithal to do that.

Most importantly, I do not believe they can sustain an air campaign of even a
few days without suffering the loss of several aircraft, and very likely a few
ships. And I do not believe Trump is prepared to face ANY significant losses.

Oh, and lest I forget, we have already had it proven beyond dispute that the
US/Israeli missile defense is woefully deficient against Iranian ballistic
missiles.

Every US base in the region will get pounded. And Israel will get pounded. It's
even quite possible that Diego Garcia will get pounded.

Then we'll have a major geopolitical crisis on our hands.

So let's hope and pray Trump chickens out again.