The fact that the Brookings paper didn't foresee Iran's missile capability is neither here nor there

Not sure that you can dismiss that factoid so lightly. As you wish. As far as I am concerned, Brian is sticking to an outdated model and not considering an update to his pov considering the latest facts and circumstances. It seems blindingly obvious to me.

Btw, agree that Trump has probably got Epstein files re 13 year old to worry about. And .. ?