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Alistair or Brian -- who is right?

Posted by scrabb <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=scrabb' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 13, 2026, 5:54 pm

Speaking to the judge, Alistair opined that it was Israeli/Nerunyahu pressure that stymied any chance of an agreement between the US and Iran. The Israelis demanded full surrender of nuclear material and no possibility of any further research, subject to stringent checks by others and themselves. (Plus herring rid of all ballistic missiles and no help to so-called proxy groups in the region.) These terms of course would be unacceptable to Iran even before talks began, as everyone knew.

In this scenario, Israel is dictating US policy : the zionists have control and are calling the shots.

Brian rejects this. Basing his position on the Brookings document of 2009, he maintains that the US is simply following a strategy of global domination which they concocted (ie, the corporate deep state) and this includes using Israel as then patsy or fall guy that the US can blame for any covert action they plan. Thus Israel started the war on Iran and the US had no choice but to follow suit for fear of being blamed and attacked. Similarly, if Israel uses nuclear weapons against Iran, the US can offer the excuse that they asked them not to and Israel ignored them. This despite the obvious fact that Isreal is only a nuclear power thanks to the US and cannot act independently.

The tail-wagging-the-dog scenario of the zionist lobby in Washington dictating US policy is a myth promoted and endorsed by the deep state for the reasons mentioned above. To support this, Brian says that the lobby provides only one per cent of all the money that flows into the political parties in the form of overt support and kick-backs. In other words, the lobby's influence is insignificant.

So who is right? Alistair or Brian?

Brian!....nm

Posted by Keith-264 <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=Keith-264' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 13, 2026, 6:06 pm, in reply to "Alistair or Brian -- who is right? "

Clio the cat, ?July 1997-1 May 2016
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Re: Brian.

Posted by Sir Michael Mouse <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=Sir+Michael+Mouse' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 13, 2026, 7:13 pm, in reply to "Brian!....nm"

Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background ..

Posted by t <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=TomskiD' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 13, 2026, 7:31 pm, in reply to "Alistair or Brian -- who is right? "

To imagine that Trump is disciplined enough to follow the Brookings Institute charting of the path to Persia is frankly laughable. The guy is a nutter and only interested in enriching himself, his family and his zionist real estate development buddies. One could perhaps dismiss that by saying that Trump's aims may coincide with that plan. Until it doesn't. In my humble opinion we are just about to find out that there may be a divergent path at this point.

This 2009 paper misses 17 years of geopolitical development since then. It also ignores Iran's now recognised military prowess with missiles and Strait of Hormuz zugzwang. This wasn't known in 2009.

I'd stick with Alastair who is much more of an accomplished diplomat and has a very clear understanding of the region. No contest imo.

Those thinktanks suffer from the same brainrot that was amply shown by Pentagon in their Millennium

Posted by sashimi <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=sashimi' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 13, 2026, 7:41 pm, in reply to "Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background .."

Challenge $250 million wargame fiasco. MICIMATT indeed.

Trump wants a sizeable cut of the Iranian oil transit toll!

Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background ..

Posted by scrabb <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=scrabb' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 13, 2026, 10:36 pm, in reply to "Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background .."

But as Brian endlessly points out, t, the steps outlined in the Brookings paper are enacted to the letter by subsequent events. The evidence is there for all to see. And Trump doesn't need to be disciplined (or intelligent) to keep to the script, he simply does as he's told -- and if he doesn't they will release several volumes of the Epstein files / videos where he's shagging a minor or receiving a blow job.

The fact that the Brookings paper didn't foresee Iran's missile capability is neither here nor there -- their other predictions (calculated schemes) are bang on the nail. That the future might not turn out as they planned doesn't lessen Brian''s central point that it was all pre-planned and largely worked.

Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background ..

Posted by t <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=TomskiD' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 13, 2026, 11:33 pm, in reply to "Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background .."

The fact that the Brookings paper didn't foresee Iran's missile capability is neither here nor there

Not sure that you can dismiss that factoid so lightly. As you wish. As far as I am concerned, Brian is sticking to an outdated model and not considering an update to his pov considering the latest facts and circumstances. It seems blindingly obvious to me.

Btw, agree that Trump has probably got Epstein files re 13 year old to worry about. And .. ?

Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background ..

Posted by scrabb <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=scrabb' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 14, 2026, 1:42 pm, in reply to "Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background .."

Not sure that you can dismiss that factoid so lightly.

I wasn't dismissing it, t. Of course the missiles are a vital factor in Iran's dominance. But this has no bearing at all on the validity of the plan laid out in the 2009 Brookings paper and its meticulous, step by step fulfilment. Can you point to a single forecast in the paper that hasn't come to pass?

Big Serge

Posted by Keith-264 <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=Keith-264' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 14, 2026, 5:39 pm, in reply to "Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background .."

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-insurgent-empire

Big points out that the Iranian deterrent failed and that they don't have a direct means of taking the war to the Septics, that the Seppoes can lob explosives and besiege Iran indefinitely. Perhaps the Iranians can man it out or perhaps not, it isn't an Iranian victory looked at strategically, merely the first stage.

Clio the cat, ?July 1997-1 May 2016
Kira the cat, ??2010-3 August 2018
Jasper the Ruffian cat ???-4 November 2021
Georgina the cat ?2006-4 December 2025
Toni the cat ?2005-25 March 2026

Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background ..

Posted by t <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=TomskiD' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 15, 2026, 3:33 am, in reply to "Re: Alistair or Brian -- who is right?: One needs to examine the background .."

Can you point to a single forecast in the paper that hasn't come to pass?

Apologies, I haven't got the capacity to analyse the validity etc. I have given you the reasoning. If it ain't good enough, so be it. Take it or leave it etc.

Not really bothered. It's plain to see.

Notice how the Israelis stopped bombing Iran as soon as Trump demanded it.

Posted by Der <iframe src='https://members5.boardhost.com/xxxxx/info/user=Der' width='330' height='300' border=0 style='border:none;'> on April 13, 2026, 10:53 pm, in reply to "Alistair or Brian -- who is right? "

And yet the Israelis certainly didn't want a ceasefire. They're delighted it's broken down. So, how come they weren't able to compel the US to carry on bombing? The US wants them to bomb Lebanon coz both sides hate Hezbollah. But they could stop Israel in the blink of an eye.

In 1982, Reagan rang Begin and insisted he stop bombing Beirut. The bombing stopped immediately!

In 2024 Biden stopped Begin bombing, with another phonecall.

Sheet, even if go back to Suez we see Israel being told what to do by the US and doing it.

Take the so-called Lobby with a pinch of salt. Alex Cockburn or Norm Finkelstein or Chomsky had no time for it.

As for Trump being a halfwit n unable to decide anything on his own. Well, he does what he's told. The same people, let's call it the establishment, are always in charge of the system. Different names, same old suits. You didn't seriously think you get to influence who's in charge by visiting a polling station some day? You think the system is going to risk real democracy taking hold? Even if Corbyn had got in nothing of substance would have changed. The US rules this country.

Anyway, if you have the time listen to both Alastair and Brian. You can learn from both. But Brian is the short answer to your question.

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