To imagine that Trump is disciplined enough to follow the Brookings Institute charting of the path to Persia is frankly laughable. The guy is a nutter and only interested in enriching himself, his family and his zionist real estate development buddies. One could perhaps dismiss that by saying that Trump's aims may coincide with that plan. Until it doesn't. In my humble opinion we are just about to find out that there may be a divergent path at this point.

This 2009 paper misses 17 years of geopolitical development since then. It also ignores Iran's now recognised military prowess with missiles and Strait of Hormuz zugzwang. This wasn't known in 2009.

I'd stick with Alastair who is much more of an accomplished diplomat and has a very clear understanding of the region. No contest imo.