Re: In other words, exactly the sort of precautionary measure that's essential when dealing with an Archived Message
Posted by dan on May 9, 2020, 8:45 am, in reply to "In other words, exactly the sort of precautionary measure that's essential when dealing with an"
We know it's very different from a usual flu season.
Quoting similar assumed case fatality rates in isolation gives no clarity.
As said before just this like predicting injuries from a fall knowing only the value of acceleration under gravity. Without also knowing the height it's a diversion. Even if the cfr is the same - and that's an assumption - 4 times the spread in a quarter of the time = 16 times as many people in hospital as the flu.
Here is the latest data from the national icu audit.
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/f48efee2-d38b-ea11-9125-00505601089b
The mortality is twice as high for other viral pneumonitis- including flu - at all age groups.
I work in an icu with, because of case mix, one of the highest predicted mortalities in the country - 45% or so. We have to have regular organised group counselling sessions for staff because it's such a hard place to work. The death from corona in icu is higher still and from this data we are excluding higher risk people who might normally get in there. A mortality of 67% in 70-79 year olds is terrifying if the implications of that are understood.
I have heard from colleagues an icu in a deprived part of London - deprivation now recognised as one of the most important risks for death - they have had 1 intubated survivor from the tens admitted.
None of this is to deny the obvious depradations of the state. They have clearly chosen to neglect the people, protect capital and use authoritarian control. Denying that the illness is more severe than flu plays into the state's hands.
Unless we propose alternative strategies to manage the illness effectively and equitably without lockdown then the government will continue on current course. Denying corona virus severity is also denying the need for effective control.
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