"...i.e. what has just happened, by estimating other causes e.g. lockdown effect."
The Virus appears to take two weeks plus from infection to death so if it is a working strategy then we would expect deaths to drop at that point. Here's one with the lockdown start marked (March 23: dotted vertical line).Two and a half weeks later...down it goes:
-Of course these are total deaths and it could be that people were all dying of "panic" or committing suicide in very large numbers, or dying of cancer, etc but if so, two to three weeks lockdown miraculously reverses any other "whataboutery" cause too.