Cross Immunity, Nicotine Patches And Other New Covid-19 Science
Good news!
There is some cross immunity between a viral flu and Covid-19.
T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity - Science
Immune warriors known as T cells help us fight some viruses, but their importance for battling SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been unclear. Now, two studies reveal infected people harbor T cells that target the virus—and may help them recover. Both studies also found some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses. The last half sentence is really, really good news. People who previously had an infection caused by one of the four known flu coronaviruses have developed some capability to also fight the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. This must have already changed the way the pandemic developed. Had there not been this protection in parts of the population there would have been more Covid-19 cases and likely many more severe ones.
That some people already had some grade of immunity might also explain the two limited outbreaks on cruise ships that only hit a third to half of the passengers and crew. Without partial previous immunity more people on those ships would likely have fallen ill.
The two studies mentioned in the Science report are:
Targets of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in humans with COVID-19 disease and unexposed individuals - Cell
Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40-60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2. and
Presence of SARS-CoV-2 reactive T cells in COVID-19 patients and healthy donors - medRxiv
We demonstrate the presence of S-reactive CD4+ T cells in 83% of COVID-19 patients, as well as in 34% of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative healthy donors, albeit at lower frequencies. The T-cells generated during a Covid-19 infection are more specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus than the T-cells generated to fight off a normal virus flu. But a human who has recently had a virus induced flu will have an immediate immune reaction to a SARS-CoV-2 attack while those without such protection will lose critical time as they must build up the immune reaction from scratch while the viruses continue to multiply.
Since the Science report appeared a third study was published that detected a similar result for antibodies:
Pre-existing and de novo humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in humans - bioRxiv
Using diverse assays for detection of antibodies reactive with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein, we demonstrate the presence of pre-existing immunity in uninfected and unexposed humans to the new coronavirus. --- The rise and fall of hydroxychloroquine:
Utah went all-in on an unproven Covid-19 treatment, then scrambled to course-correct - STAT
The saga of the drugs’ rise and fall in Utah, pieced together from documents STAT obtained through a public records request, provides a case study of what happens when hope and excitement about therapies outpace the evidence. Two recently published studies provide that hydroxychloroquine does not help in mild or medium Covid-19 cases but has severe side effects in about 10% of the cases in which it is used.
Hydroxychloroquine in patients with mainly mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019: open label, randomised controlled trial - BMJ
Conclusions Administration of hydroxychloroquine did not result in a significantly higher probability of negative conversion [i.e. release from hospital] than standard of care alone in patients admitted to hospital with mainly persistent mild to moderate covid-19. Adverse events were higher in hydroxychloroquine recipients than in non-recipients. Clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with covid-19 pneumonia who require oxygen: observational comparative study using routine care data - BMJ
Eight patients in the treatment group (10%) experienced electrocardiographic modifications that required discontinuation of treatment. ... [T]he results of this study do not support its use in patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 who require oxygen. --- After reports from China that active smoker representation in severe cases of Covid-19 was less than expected a French researcher suggested a mechanism by which nicotine potentially hinders the virus replication. A trial with nicotine patches was started in France and another one is planed in the UK.
New data suggests that it is not the severity of the disease that differs in current smokers from others but that their risk of getting infected at all is much lower than for non-smokers. From a Lancet comment: Who is most likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2?
Among chronic comorbidities examined, only those with chronic kidney disease had an increased risk of infection, whereas the risk in active smokers was around half that observed in never smokers. A large data study from Britain about the progression of the disease supports that:
OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients. - medRxiv
We found some evidence of increased risks in former smokers. In current smokers there was a slight protective effect, which was removed when fully adjusted for ethnicity. The risks associated with smoking have been disputed, with increased risks initially reported, but some more recent reports finding that smokers are under-represented in those with more severe disease, and a potential protective mechanism for nicotine has been suggested: smoking prevalence was lower than expected among hospitalised patients in China, France and the USA. Even if smoking does have a small protective effects against COVID-19, this would still be massively outweighed by the well-established adverse health effects of smoking. --- The Economist has compared 'excess deaths' statistics for various countries. It has now published the raw data and the software its used to process them at Github:
The Economist's tracker for covid-19 excess deaths
New York State governor Andrew Cuomo was much lauded for his reaction to the epidemic. But a more detailed look and a comparison to California paints a much darker picture:
Two Coasts. One Virus. How New York Suffered Nearly 10 Times the Number of Deaths as California. - Pro Publica
The reopening after the lockdown is not happening as it should happen:
Failing the Test — The Tragic Data Gap Undermining the U.S. Pandemic Response - NEJM
Reopening state economies without the precision provided by analysis of rigorously reported testing data seems a peculiarly American form of madness. There Are Sensible Ways to Reopen a Country. Then There's America's Approach - Time
One of the severe economic consequences of the epidemic:
The next phase of America's coronavirus problem is a massive housing crisis - The Week
A reminder to keep the masks up:
Coronavirus: hamster research shows effectiveness of masks ‘huge’ in Covid-19 battle, Hong Kong scientists say - SCMP
The study, which the team called the first of its kind, found the rate of non-contact transmission – in which the virus was transmitted via respiratory droplets or airborne particles – dropped by as much as 75 per cent when masks were present. Last but not least a must read:
Profiting from Coronavirus - Craig Murray
--- Some have criticized the current restrictive comment policy on coronavirus threads at Moon of Alabama. Others have explicitly lauded it. It will continue.
Comments that give dubious medical advice or hype this or that unproven remedy will be deleted. Those who insist on reposting such comments will get banned. There is already enough misinformation out there and it does not need further amplification.