"I'm open to evidence from sweden, though their not-lockdown seems effectively similar to our weak lockdown."
Interesting point. When posting data I reckoned and stated (might have been a bit noisy too... ) the UK were doing worse than Sweden, but didn't stop to consider that with our ostensibly more severe measures, the UK 'should be' doing better than Sweden. Perhaps Sweden showed more preparedness. Also I'm not sure how much the lockdown is being observed here, especailly in poorer communities. I guess the countries are close enough in these variables for it to be quite a complex question.
On fishing for data...
"....they're in 10th for deaths per million (denmark 23rd), which doesn't seem that good"
Some fish are thrown back that are too small Three of the countries higher deaths per million than Sweden are the size of towns: Sint Maarten (Caribbean island owned by the Netherlands, popn 43,000), San Marino (popn 33,000) and Andorra (78,000). Cheers