- Re: One in 400 people in England has coronavirus, tests suggest Archived Message
Posted by Tomski
on May 15, 2020, 4:28 pm, in reply to "Re: One in 400 people in England has coronavirus, tests suggest"
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Hi Derek, I am no expert … but here goes: Taking year 2018 as an example, seasonal flu infectivity was exceptionally higher than normal and 1 in 14,000 odd people were infected in England (7.2 per 100,000), of which 155 died since October that year: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jan/25/three-times-more-people-dying-from-flu-in-uk-than-last-winter https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/30/winter-deaths-hit-highest-level-40-years-experts-blame-ineffective/ Not to forget that a lot of people may have had a flu jab that year which may have not worked well. No doubt one could pick holes in the data but is seems reasonable to take it at face value for now. It seems that at least the mortality from the 2018 seasonal flu is quite small in comparison to CV19 mortality this year, even if one assumes that reporting is skewed. Also, from reading around I recall seeing that CV19 is much more infective/transmittable. The reason why I posted that particle was because the thread subject was testing. My interest is with complete eradication of CV19 (as in China etc.) and if 1 in 400 people in England have tested positive it indicates how much work needs to be done to get rid of it i.e. testing, tracing etc. A massive logistical exercise which should have started months ago and is nowhere near to what it needs to be. It's ironic how the capitalists have failed in such a basic exercise which will ultimately hit their profits over a long period of time. Btw, I thought that the sample size of 11,000 is very reasonable statistically. It's normally 10X smaller in opinion polls etc. Cheers |