- Re: No, not ironic. Just practicing the art of holding several hypotheses, without settling on any of Archived Message
Posted by Rich
on July 25, 2019, 4:13 pm, in reply to "No, not ironic. Just practicing the art of holding several hypotheses, without settling on any of"
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I believed it 100% when I saw it on tv in 1969 - same as everyone else presumably. Ten years ago I met a Russian space engineer and much to my surprise she thought the whole story was complete bollocks. Two friends visited the NASA space museum a few decades back and thought the space suits were so ridiculously thin they'd never survive the temperature let alone the radiation on the moon. I met a 911 mod by chance once when having a spit and a drag outside an office building. He absolutely knew his stuff on 911 (I think he might have been the guy that found the BBC footage showing Jane Stanley telling the world that B7 had collapsed when it hadn't) and was convinced the moon landings were a scam. : I did like this bit in Dmitry's article: "Count the steps: there are 13 of them. Now, suppose that each step is 99% reliable. Then the probability of the overall mission being successful is 0.9913 or 88%. Problem is, practical experience of failures during space missions during the 60s and 70s puts the chance of success at each step at around 60%. Now, 0.613 gives us the chances of success of any given Apollo mission that lands on the moon at 0.13%. There were purportedly six Apollo missions that landed on the moon. 0.00136 gives us a truly astronomically small probability of success: 5×10–18. That’s one chance of success for every 200,000,000,000,000,000 attempts. Suppose you don’t like the 60% reliability number. Maybe those NASA scientists were just extraordinarily good and managed to make each step 90% reliable—a tall order, considering that they had to get it right on first try. Then the chance of all six Apollo missions being successful is one in 3,707. But then the 90% number is itself highly unlikely. As far “highly unlikely” goes, the Apollo missions pretty much set the gold standard. It leads us to conclude that it is highly unlikely that any Americans ever set foot on the Moon. Now, a lot of people are understandably flabbergasted at the possibility that it has been possible to pull off a hoax of this magnitude for 50 years. Sure, that’s highly unlikely too. I’ll leave it as an exercise for the readers to calculate the probability of pulling it off, but my hunch is that it is many orders of magnitude higher than one in 200,000,000,000,000,000 because I think it highly unlikely that an overwhelming percentage of highly compensated professionals wouldn’t keep their mouths shut in order to save their jobs, protect their reputations and, if the stakes are high enough, stay alive. So, yeah, sure, Americans landed on the Moon six times. Lucky, lucky Americans! Soooo lucky!" https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2019/07/highly-unlikely-conspiracies.html |