Yes, its entirely possible that the numbers would be roughly the same, but the issue is and has always been not the overall numbers but the massive impact of them all arriving at the same time, overwhelming the Health service and creating knock-on deaths elsewhere.
Right, so in order to make a judgement of what policy to pursue, you'd naturally also want to assess what impact a lockdown has. It's funny that the three replies I get all ignore this other point I make.
And now we're starting to see some estimates of the impact these lockdowns are having from the UN -- see Rippon's thread right above this one where
The UN has issued a warning that the economic downturn could "kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020"