- Re: I feel the same RG Archived Message
Posted by dereklane
on April 23, 2020, 8:14 am, in reply to "I feel the same RG"
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Hi flash, just Occam's razor vs lockdown: could be that those most at risk have mostly already died. That would stem exponential growth too. Or that the virus is mutating (supposedly multiple strains already). I get the Occam's razor concept of course, but there are potentially a number of possibilities that could be contributing factors. But say the strike and kill rate was 100% and the test sample was 100 individuals. You would get exponential growth of mortality for a short time, then it would level off, then drop and eventually stand at zero (because no one was left to kill). If you attribute the figures to any measures taken you might be lead to believe those measures had a positive effect. But (in this real world) there's not yet enough info on what comorbidities are contributing factors to mortality (it seems fairly arbitrary as dan has pointed out), so our reasoning on it is flawed because the only pattern we have to look at and correlate is the one we imposed on the virus (lockdown). With scant understanding (and there must be more to it; we know the types of people for example more at risk from influenza but covid19 too new) Occam's razor is only presenting us with one possibility rather than many but with one being most plausible. From what I can tell lockdown v virus growth is the only cause effect relationship we have to study in the absence of more knowledge. But maybe I'm missing something? |