On your first point, I doubt it will be; all associated other deaths due to lockdown and deferral of needy patients will exacerbate if anything.
You're right. I guess I was really thinking of the number of people dying from illnesses over a year and comparing to this year with extra covid deaths. (In particular counting those illnesses which COVID exacerbates).
Re other points, yes quite: I feel questioning quickly gets you lumped with conspiracy theorists or accused of being a eugenicist.